Government Comes to Its Census Today

Secretary of Commerce Gary Locke will officially release the first set of numbers from the 2010 Census today at 8am in Washington, DC.

The Capitol is 2,500 miles away, but the census data will have an impact on Banning and Beaumont.  The numbers are used to plan everything from where to build homes and retail stores to the apportionment of the 113th Congress, which will convene in 2013.

According to the Census Bureau's estimate, $400 billion dollars are at stake—the amount that the US government spends each year based on census data. 

Census figures determine the number of Congress members each state receives.  After a seat in the US House of Representatives is assigned to each state, the rest are distributed according to population, a process called the "method of equal proportions" that Congress has used since 1940. 

After the 2000 census, for example, two states lost two seats in Congress—New York and Pennsylvania.  Four states gained two seats—Arizona, Florida, Georgia and Texas.  Most states lose or gain no more than one.  Within states, Congressional districts have to be re-drawn to reflect population shifts, a process called redistricting.

At the same time the Census Bureau has been assembling national numbers collected by more than 600,000 workers, the bureau has been releasing American FactFinder data—five-year estimates of towns based on the American Community Survey conducted by the bureau.

Beaumont Growth, Pains

The contrast between Beaumont's 2000 and 2010 ACS numbers are dramatic, though some economic data may be too dramatic; the recession has skewed some ACS-based estimates, especially regarding housing prices. 

At the top of the list is population; Beaumont went from 11,384 residents in 2000 to 28,261 in 2010, an increase of 148 percent.  The town's median age got a year older, from 30 to 31, and the town grew wealthier; median family income went from $37,403 in 2000 to $71,797 in 2010, an increase of 92 percent in 2009-adjusted dollars. 

But families' disposable income appears to have shrunk during the decade, as the median house value in 2000 was $119,600 and in 2010 grew to $302,500, an increase of 153 percent—more than 150 percent of the growth rate for income.  The average monthly cost of buying a Beaumont home more than doubled during the decade, according to the ACS estimates, from $1,088 to $2,099, and rents had a similar increase.  (Because of the real estate bubble bursting, however, these ACS estimates have a much wider margin of error than they usually do.)

Banning Growing, But Slower

Banning's population was twice Beaumont's in 2000; the towns are equal in population today.  Banning's population grew from 23,562 to 28,328, an increase of 20 percent in 10 years.  Its poverty decreased;  20 percent of the city lived below the poverty line a decade ago, and 13 percent live there today, an improvement of 35 percent.

The ACS figures dispel a myth about Banning—that the town has a majority over 55 years old.  The percentage of seniors, while double the national average and that of neighboring Beaumont, has for the last decade remained roughly one-quarter of the Banning population (though seniors may constitute a voting majority in local elections, which are notorious for their low turnout).