Upset Special: Santorum Wins Iowa

Rick Santorum will be the Mike Huckabee of 2012 when he pulls out a stunning upset in the Iowa Caucuses on Tuesday.

(I don’t believe in wimpy predictions!)

Santorum has finally emerged as the conservative who can rally Republicans in 2012. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee pulled out a similar, 11th hour upset in 2008 when he united social conservatives in the last days before the caucuses.

The latest polls have Mitt Romney winning Iowa. I’m going to disagree because polls have shown that Romney the RINO’s poll numbers peak below 25 percent. The numbers for isolationist nutcase Ron Paul also top out about 22 percent.

That clears the way for Santorum who is uniting conservatives who have fractured among four candidates (Santorum, Gingrich, Bachmann and Perry). I predict Santorum will be the last conservative standing when the race winnows down to Romney, Paul and Santorum by late February.

Santorum is a solid Republican and family man who advocates conservative solutions – balanced budget amendment, fewer regulations, etc. – as well as having a solid understanding about the deadly threat we face from Islamic terrorism. He can unite conservatives divided into fiscal, social and national security camps.

Santorum lacks pizzazz, but so what? Unlike Obama, Santorum is a profound speaker who doesn’t need a TelePrompTer.

(My prediction pains me a bit because I am an unapologetic Michele Bachmann fan; if I were still in my native Iowa, I would, despite my prediction, caucus for her in my hometown of Altoona.)

I was in journalism for 20 years and a political junkie for most of my 47 years. I watch political polls like NFL referees watch offensive linemen.

What polls fail to detect are the momentum surges in the closing days of a campaign. They fail to capture the last-minute voters making up their minds or switching candidates. Momentum is everything in campaigns – especially in Iowa, where voters spend up to three hours politicking at caucus locations.

Here are my picks for the Republican Iowa Caucus:

1. Rick Santorum
2. Mitt Romney
3. Ron Paul
4. Newt Gingrich
5. Michele Bachmann
6. Rick Perry

2012 is a year conservatives will not be denied – whether it’s the general election in November or the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 3. I just don’t see Romney or Paul winning the GOP nomination.